Delphi Surveys: How Expert Panels Can Predict the Future

How can we make reliable predictions when limited data is available or when developments are hard to grasp? This is where Delphi surveys come in – a method based on the combined knowledge of experts to gain well-founded insights into future trends and developments. Through multi-stage surveys and anonymous feedback, the Delphi method enables a deeper analysis of complex issues. But how does this method work, and why is it particularly valuable for strategic decision-making?

Key Takeaways: Delphi Surveys and Their Applications

Introduction to Delphi Surveys

Delphi surveys are a proven method to leverage expert knowledge to develop well-founded forecasts. But how did this method originate, and how does it work in detail?

What is a Delphi Survey?

The Delphi survey is a structured communication process that aims to create a coherent view of future developments from the assessments and forecasts of a group of experts.
Originally developed in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation to make military and political predictions, the method is now used in various fields, including market research to identify trends or to better assess product development.

Objectives and Applications

The goal of a Delphi survey is to reach a consensus among experts. This is done through multiple rounds of questioning, where experts anonymously express their opinions, then reflect on and adjust their responses based on summarized results. The method is particularly useful when data or empirical knowledge is lacking, and expert opinions are the best available source of information.

Why Is the Delphi Survey Called the Delphi Method?

The Delphi method is named after the ancient Greek Oracle of Delphi. In antiquity, the Oracle of Delphi was one of Greece’s most important religious sites, where people sought predictions and advice about the future.
The naming was done by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, which developed the method. The researchers deliberately chose the name as a reference to the predictive function of the ancient oracle, since the Delphi method also aims to make forecasts and assessments about future developments.
However, there is an interesting difference:

• While the Oracle of Delphi relied on mystical and religious practices
• The modern Delphi method is based on a scientific, structured process of expert questioning

The irony of this naming was later noted by some of the original developers, as they named a rational forecasting method after a mystical place of prophecy. Nevertheless, the name has become established and is now internationally recognized as the standard term for this systematic method of expert surveying.

How the Delphi Method Works

The Delphi method follows a well-structured process to obtain precise and balanced assessments from experts. The core of this method lies in the repeated rounds of questioning and the principle of anonymity.

Structure of Survey Rounds

The Delphi method typically consists of multiple survey rounds. In each round, a series of questions is asked, based on the responses from the previous round. This allows expert assessments to become increasingly detailed and specific. Usually, two to four rounds are needed to reach a usable result.

Anonymity and Feedback Cycles

A key element of the Delphi method is participant anonymity. This prevents group pressure and allows experts to express their opinions without influence from dominant personalities or hierarchies. After each round, experts receive anonymous feedback in the form of a summary of previous results, enabling them to reconsider their responses based on their peers’ insights.

Advantages of the Delphi Method in Market Research

The Delphi method offers numerous benefits in market research, especially when it comes to reliable forecasts and objective assessments. Here we highlight two of the most important strengths of this method.

• Prediction Accuracy
  The Delphi method is considered a reliable tool for making qualitative forecasts, especially in uncertain or dynamic markets. As experts repeatedly review their assessments and adjust them based on feedback cycles, the method often leads to more accurate predictions.
• Independence from Group Pressure
  Due to the anonymity of the survey and the iterative structure (repetition and reflection), the method largely avoids distortions from group pressure. Each expert can independently express their opinion, which promotes the objectivity of the results.

Steps to Conduct a Delphi Survey

Conducting a Delphi survey requires careful planning and a structured approach. Each step contributes to obtaining meaningful and reliable results. Here are the key steps to successfully implementing a Delphi survey.

1. Define the Topic
   The first step is to define the topic or question of the Delphi survey. It is important to select a specific and well-defined topic that allows for detailed analysis and well-founded forecasts. A clear topic helps focus the survey and select relevant experts.
2. Select Experts
   The choice of experts is crucial to the success of a Delphi survey. The experts should possess extensive knowledge in the subject area and be able to make informed predictions. A diverse group with different perspectives also contributes to the quality of the results.
3. Design Questions
   The questions must be clear and precise to obtain well-founded answers. Typical Delphi survey questions are often open-ended, inviting predictions, assessments, and scenario-based responses.
4. Analyze and Summarize Results
   After each round, responses are analyzed and anonymously summarized before being sent back to the experts. At the end of the survey, the final results are consolidated and analyzed for possible patterns or trends.

Delphi Survey: A Practical Example

To make the application of the Delphi method more tangible, let’s look at a practical example. Such scenarios illustrate how companies can use expert surveys to develop well-founded forecasts on specific topics.

The Delphi Method – An Example

An example of applying the Delphi method could be a survey to assess future consumer trends. Suppose a company wants to know how interest in sustainable products will evolve over the next five years. A selected group of experts in consumer behavior, marketing, and sustainability could share their assessments over multiple rounds to create a clear picture of possible developments.

Possible Questions and Analysis Methods

Example questions could be as follows:

“How do you estimate the demand for sustainable products will change over the next five years?”

“What external factors might influence demand?”

The evaluation could combine qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to translate expert forecasts into concrete recommendations for action.

Applications of the Delphi Analysis

The Delphi analysis is widely used, especially when expert knowledge is required to better assess future developments. Below, we present key applications where this method provides particularly valuable results.

• Product Development and Trend Forecasting
  The Delphi analysis is excellent for identifying market trends and planning new product developments. Companies can leverage expert opinions to recognize early on which products or services are likely to be in demand in the future.
• Risk Assessment and Crisis Prevention
  The Delphi method is often used in risk analysis and crisis prevention to assess potential threats and their likelihood of occurrence. This allows companies and institutions to develop preventive measures to be prepared for future crises.

Challenges and Limitations of the Delphi Survey

Like any method, the Delphi survey has its challenges and limitations. Understanding these is crucial for using the method effectively and identifying potential weaknesses early on.

Potential Biases in Delphi Surveys

Although the Delphi method reduces group pressure, other biases may occur, such as expert bias or unclear questions. It is important to carefully plan the survey and, if necessary, employ external moderators.

Time and Resource Intensity

A Delphi survey can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, as multiple rounds of questioning are needed, and expert selection and data analysis must be conducted meticulously. Therefore, the method is less suitable for quick decisions.

Conclusion: Delphi Surveys as a Valuable Tool for Strategic Decisions

Delphi surveys are a powerful tool for collecting structured and anonymous expert knowledge to make forecasts about the future. Through iterative questioning and participant anonymity, a high level of objectivity and accuracy is achieved. In areas where reliable data is lacking or where high uncertainty exists, the Delphi method can provide valuable insights and guidance.

FAQs on the Delphi Survey